Rolling returns: a fairer way to judge a fund

Returns

4 min read

Rolling returns measure a fund's return over every possible window of a fixed length across its history — for example every 3-year period, rolled forward day by day. Instead of one number that depends on today's date, you see the full distribution of outcomes.

Why trailing returns can mislead

A fund's "3-year return = 18%" depends entirely on the start and end dates. Pick a different month and it could be 9% or 25%. Rolling returns remove this luck by averaging across hundreds of overlapping windows.

What to look for

  • Average rolling return — the typical outcome over that horizon.
  • Minimum & maximum — the worst and best you'd have seen. A small gap means consistency.
  • % of windows above a target — e.g. "beat 12% in 85% of 5-year periods."

A fund with slightly lower average returns but far higher consistency is often the better long-term hold.

→ Backtest a fund's real SIP across different start dates in the Backtest tab.